EDITORIAL: RISK ANALYSIS—HOW EPIDEMIOLOGISTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS SEE THIS TOOL

Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related events in populations and the application of analytical tools to inform their control. Many methods and techniques are in epidemiologists’ toolbox to understand animal health-related events’ distribution and dynamics. Resources like statistical analysis, modeling of diseases, network analysis, machine learning, and risk analysis are continually evolving to be more accurate in understanding associations of factors that can cause disease or increase the spread, compromising the population’s health.  

Among these tools, we will dive into what Risk Analysis (RA) is and how it is applied by different sectors, academia, government, and the private sector, in the context of animal health.

But, what are risk and risk analysis per se?

According to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), Risk is the likelihood of the occurrence of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health (outcome) and the likely magnitude of the consequences of the unwanted outcome. Then, Risk analysis is a multi-step process that comprises the hazard identification, risk assessment (here is related to the calculation of the probability that the adverse event occurs), risk management (this phase involves the stakeholders’ decisions regarding identification, selection, and implementation of measures that can be applied to reduce the level of risk), and risk communication (which should be a transparent and timely communication among stakeholders, such as risk assessors, risk managers, the general public and other interested parties, throughout the risk analysis process concerning risk, risk-related factors and risk perceptions.).

How different sectors see the RA

For a better grasp of RA and the nuances of how different sectors use the tool, we interviewed three experts who explain its value through different lenses. Dr. Abelardo de Gracia, a former official veterinarian from the Official Veterinary Service of Panama, and now Regional Director of Animal Health of OIRSA (Organismo Internacional Regional de Sanidad Agropecuaria). Dr. Andres Perez, Professor at the Department of Veterinary Population Medicine at the University of Minnesota, and director of the Center of Animal Health and Food Safety (CAHFS). And Dr. Solenne Costard, a senior consultant at EpiX Analytics.

While the applied methodology is the same, the approach of each sector is different. Each sector performs the analysis and uses the output according to their own perspective and priorities, which results in challenges for each as well as opportunities to learn from what other sectors do well. Generally speaking, the private sector will focus more on economic impact, business opportunities, and amplifying trades. The Academia will perform the RA that sometimes considers the ideal situation, without taking into account how the recommendations of the RA can be received by the stakeholders and the OVS. And the OVS, in a conservative way, will try to balance competing priorities due to the fact of being responsible for managing the risk, measuring all the actions.

How Risk informs decision making in animal health

The risk analysis is being used to aid decision-making on matters such as the safe trade of animal products (preventing the introduction and spread of diseases throughout regions) and food safety issues with potential public health impact. Dr. Perez emphasizes that the risk analysis is a dynamic tool and needs to be frequently updated and be readily available to the Official Veterinary Services (OVS) in “peacetimes”. 

This would support the decision-making process in situations pre-outbreaks, allowing better planning for early detections of any disease introduction. Dr. Costard agrees with this point and highlights that “implementing RA is no longer effective when the country is suffering an outbreak. At this point, the contingency plan (response activities) should be already in place, and the implementation should be the priority, there is no room for calculating probabilities of pathways of sources of infection.